Burnaby needs 74,051 new homes by 2041

The City of Burnaby released an update on its most recent housing needs report (HNR), and the numbers are striking compared to the 2021 report. According to the 2024 report, Burnaby will need 22,724 new homes by 2026 and 36,540 new homes by 2031. The new report also estimates Burnaby will need 74,051 homes by 2041 to meet increasing demand due to projected population growth. 

Prior to this report’s release, the 2021 report estimated the city would only need 8,080 new homes over five years (2021-2026) and 15,040 over 10 years (2021-2031). The city has already completed approximately 11,000 new homes since 2021.

According to the new report, “This new 2024 HNR Method has significantly higher housing estimates from Burnaby’s previous estimates. The differences are due to variations in data sources, methodologies, and the timing of the estimates.”

This report was discussed during the city’s Planning and Development Committee’s meeting on Oct. 17. Some committee members expressed concern about the numbers. 

“The planning department is going to be very busy to be able to approve 74,000 new units in the next 15 to 16 years,” Coun. Pietro Calendino said. 

“Can you take a moment or two to explain to me what were the ingredients of this new recipe that made a big change? What did we miss before that we didn’t know?” Coun. Sav Dhaliwal said. “Those categories, I thought they were part of the original numbers.”

Staff members responded to Dhaliwal’s questions by explaining the new methodology for calculating housing needs and how it differs from the methodology used in the 2021 report. 

“A couple of things have changed. The provincial projections that we are required to use projected a much higher level of growth than we had in 2021. The second part of that is how housing demand is calculated as a result of that growth,” said Ed Kozak, the general manager of planning and development. “The combination of those two things has resulted in almost three times the total demand for housing from our 2021 projections or housing needs report from then.” 

According to the staff report, the 2021 housing needs report used 2016 census data and 2020 BC Statistics as data sources in creating its estimates. In contrast, the new 2024 HNR uses 2021 census data, July 2024 BC Statistics, BC’s Integrated Data Project (IDP), CMHC Housing Market Information portal, and the demand factor calculated by the provincial Ministry of Housing as its data sources. 

The methodology has also changed. In creating the 2021 report, the city used a methodology developed by the consulting firm Urban Matters, which is based on two components: anticipated household growth projections and suppressed household formation. 

In contrast, the new housing needs report uses the province’s standardized methodology. The provincial methodology is based on six components:

• Anticipated household growth projections 

• Suppressed household formation  

• Extreme core housing need 

• Persons experiencing homelessness 

• Rental vacancy rate adjustments 

• Additional demand  

The province now requires municipalities to update their housing needs reports in keeping with its projections for population growth. 

“The way the legislation is laid out, it says that you have to use this methodology, you describe what your housing needs are, and you have to update your OCP and your next update to reflect the housing needs,” said Johannes Schumann, director of community planning. He added that the city has anticipated these needs and that they will be included in the final land-use framework that will be part of the OCP.  

Kozak added that these are projections, not targets, and are based on the anticipated growth of Burnaby. 

According to a presentation by Carla Schuk, planner 3, and Maggy Spence, planner assistant 3, the city has already completed about 11,000 new units since the completion of the previous report, which was Jan. 1, 2021. The planners also said there are about 10,228 units currently under construction. 

“It’s not anticipated that all these development projects will be completed by the end of 2026; however, if 50% of these units currently under construction are completed within Burnaby by the end of 2026, we’d be at about 71% towards the goal of meeting the housing needs requirement by 2026, which would be roughly around 16,000 units,” Spence said.

This piece was made possible by the Local Journalism Initiative.

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